The following charts seek to answer the following question: If these two (or more) teams finish with the same record, who wins the tiebreaker?
Notes and assumptions:
- No possibility of future tie games.
- Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now. (Example: JAX and TEN can only finish tied if TEN beats JAX Week 17.)
- Tiebreakers that don’t affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored. (Example: If HOU and IND both finish 4-12, IND finishes in front of HOU in the AFC South.)
- Division ties are broken first. (Example: If BUF, MIA, and BAL all finish 8-8, break the BUF-MIA tie first. Then apply the tiebreaker between BAL and the BUF-MIA winner.)
- If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
- Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
- The #6 seed will have at least an 8-8 record. Any 8-8 tie for the #6 seed must include at least two of BUF/MIA and TEN.
- KC wins any AFC West tiebreaker at 9-7 and can’t match up at 9-7 with non-division-winning BUF, BAL, or TEN.
- Clinched division: NE, PIT.
- Clinched playoff berth: JAX.
- Eliminated: NYJ, CIN, CLE, IND, HOU, DEN.
- Eliminated from division: MIA, BUF, BAL, OAK.
- The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
AFC East
NE clinched division. NYJ eliminated from playoffs.
| If these teams tie | at | and these things happen | tie goes to | based on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF-MIA | 8-8 | MIA | division record |
AFC North
PIT clinched division. CLE and CIN eliminated from playoffs.
AFC South
JAX clinched playoff berth. IND and HOU eliminated from playoffs.
| If these teams tie | at | and these things happen | tie goes to | based on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN-JAX | 10-6 | TEN | head-to-head |
AFC West
DEN eliminated from playoffs. OAK eliminated from division.
| If these teams tie | at | and these things happen | tie goes to | based on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC-OAK | 8-8 | KC | division record | |
| KC-LAC | KC | head-to-head | ||
| OAK-LAC | 8-8 | OAK | division record | |
| KC-OAK-LAC | 8-8 | KC | head-to-head |
Conference tiebreakers
2-team ties
| If these teams tie | at | and these things happen | tie goes to | based on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE-PIT | NE | head-to-head | ||
| NE-JAX | JAX | conference record | ||
| BUF-BAL | 10-6 | BAL beats CIN | BAL | common opponents |
| BUF-BAL | 9-7 | BAL loses to CIN and BUF beats MIA | likely BUF | strength-of-victory |
| BUF-BAL | 9-7 | BUF loses to MIA | BAL | common opponents |
| BUF-TEN | TEN beats LAR and BUF beats MIA | BUF | common opponents | |
| BUF-TEN | 9-7 | TEN beats LAR and BUF loses to MIA | likely BUF | strength-of-victory |
| BUF-TEN | TEN loses to LAR | TEN | conference record | |
| BUF-JAX | 10-6 | JAX | conference record | |
| BUF-KC | BUF | head-to-head | ||
| BUF-LAC | LAC | head-to-head | ||
| MIA-TEN | 8-8 | MIA | head-to-head | |
| PIT-JAX | JAX | head-to-head | ||
| BAL-TEN | TEN | head-to-head | ||
| BAL-JAX | 10-6 | JAX | head-to-head | |
| BAL-LAC | 9-7 | BAL | conference record | |
| TEN-KC | TEN beats LAR | KC | common opponents | |
| TEN-KC | TEN loses to LAR | TEN | conference record | |
| TEN-LAC | TEN | conference record | ||
| JAX-KC | 10-6 | JAX | conference record |
3-team
| If these teams tie | at | and these things happen | tie goes to | based on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE-PIT-JAX | JAX |
|
||
| BUF-BAL-TEN | 10-6 | BAL beats CIN | BAL | common opponents |
| BUF-BAL-TEN | 9-7 |
|
BUF/BAL, likely BUF |
|
| BUF-BAL-TEN | 9-7 |
|
BAL | common opponents |
| BUF-BAL-TEN | 9-7 | TEN loses to LAR | TEN | conference record |
| BUF-BAL-JAX | 10-6 | JAX | conference record | |
| BUF-BAL-LAC | 9-7 | BUF beats MIA |
BUF/BAL, likely BUF |
|
| BUF-BAL-LAC | 9-7 | BUF loses to MIA | BAL |
|
| BUF-TEN-KC | 8-8 | TEN | conference record | |
| BUF-TEN-OAK | 8-8 | TEN | conference record | |
| BUF-TEN-LAC | 9-7 | TEN beats LAR and BUF beats MIA | BUF |
|
| BUF-TEN-LAC | 9-7 | TEN beats LAR and BUF loses to MIA |
BUF/TEN, likely BUF |
|
| BUF-TEN-LAC | TEN loses to LAR | TEN | conference record | |
| MIA-TEN-KC | 8-8 | MIA | head-to-head | |
| MIA-TEN-OAK | 8-8 | OAK | head-to-head | |
| MIA-TEN-LAC | 8-8 | MIA | head-to-head | |
| BAL-TEN-LAC | 9-7 | TEN beats LAR | TEN |
|
| BAL-TEN-LAC | 9-7 | TEN loses to LAR | TEN | conference record |
4-team
| If these teams tie | at | and these things happen | tie goes to | based on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF-BAL-TEN-LAC | 9-7 | TEN beats LAR and BUF beats MIA |
BUF/BAL, likely BUF |
|
| BUF-BAL-TEN-LAC | 9-7 | TEN beats LAR and BUF loses to MIA | BAL |
|
| BUF-BAL-TEN-LAC | 9-7 | TEN loses to LAR | TEN | conference record |
