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NFC tiebreakers entering Week 16 (plus MIN-GB)

The following charts seek to answer the following question: If these two (or more) teams finish with the same record, who wins the tiebreaker?

Notes and assumptions:

  1. No possibility of future tie games.
  2. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now. (Example: CAR and ATL can only finish tied if ATL beats CAR Week 17.)
  3. Tiebreakers that don’t affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.  (Example: If SEA and ARI both finish 8-8, SEA finishes in front of ARI in the NFC West.)
  4. Division ties are broken first.  (Example: If ATL, CAR, and SEA all finish 10-6, break the ATL-CAR tie first.  Then apply the tiebreaker between SEA and the ATL-CAR winner.)
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
  7. The #6 seed will be at least 9-7.  Any tie at 9-7 for the #6 seed must include ATL.
  8. Clinched division and first round bye: PHI.
  9. Clinched division: MIN.
  10. Eliminated: NYG, WAS, CHI, GB, TB, SF, ARI.
  11. Eliminated from division: DAL, DET.
  12. The complete tiebreaker rules are here.

NFC East

PHI clinched division and first-round bye.  NYG and WAS eliminated from playoffs.

NFC North

MIN clinched division.  CHI and GB eliminated from playoffs.

NFC South

TB eliminated from playoffs.

If these teams tie at and these things happen tie goes to based on
NO-CAR NO head-to-head
NO-ATL ATL head-to-head
CAR-ATL ATL division record
NO-CAR-ATL 11-5 ATL head-to-head

NFC West

SF and ARI eliminated from playoffs.

If these teams tie at and these things happen tie goes to based on
LAR-SEA 10-6 SEA division record

Conference tiebreakers

2-team ties

If these teams tie at and these things happen tie goes to based on
PHI-MIN 13-3 PHI beats OAK PHI common opponents
PHI-MIN PHI loses to OAK PHI conference record
PHI-NO 12-4 PHI conference record
PHI-CAR 12-4 PHI head-to-head
PHI-LAR 12-4 PHI head-to-head
DAL-DET 10-6 DET common opponents
DAL-NO 10-6 DAL conference record
DAL-CAR 10-6 DAL conference record
DAL-ATL ATL head-to-head
DAL-LAR 10-6 LAR head-to-head
DAL-SEA 10-6 DAL head-to-head
MIN-NO 12-4 MIN head-to-head
MIN-CAR 12-4 CAR head-to-head
MIN-LAR 12-4 MIN head-to-head
DET-NO 10-6 NO head-to-head
DET-CAR 10-6 CAR head-to-head
DET-ATL ATL head-to-head
DET-LAR 10-6 DET conference record
DET-SEA 10-6 DET common opponents
NO-LAR LAR head-to-head
NO-SEA 10-6 SEA conference record
CAR-LAR 12-4 LAR beats TEN, SF LAR common opponents
CAR-LAR 11-5 LAR beats TEN; loses to SF ? strength-of-victory
CAR-LAR LAR loses to TEN LAR conference record
CAR-SEA 10-6 SEA conference record
ATL-LAR ATL conference record
ATL-SEA ATL head-to-head

3-team ties

If these teams tie at and these things happen tie goes to based on
PHI-MIN-NO 12-4 PHI conference record
PHI-MIN-CAR 12-4 PHI conference record
PHI-MIN-LAR 12-4 PHI
  1. LAR eliminated on head-to-head
  2. conference record
PHI-NO-LAR 12-4 PHI conference record
PHI-CAR-LAR 12-4 PHI head-to-head
DAL-DET-NO 10-6 DET
  1. NO eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
DAL-DET-CAR 10-6 DET
  1. CAR eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
DAL-DET-ATL ATL head-to-head
DAL-DET-LAR 10-6 DET
  1. LAR eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
DAL-GB-ATL 9-7 ATL head-to-head
DAL-NO-LAR 10-6 LAR head-to-head
DAL-CAR-LAR 10-6 DAL conference record
DAL-ATL-LAR 10-6 ATL
  1. DAL eliminated on head-to-head
  2. conference record
DAL-ATL-SEA ATL head-to-head
MIN-NO-LAR 12-4 MIN head-to-head
MIN-CAR-LAR 12-4 MIN conference record
DET-NO-LAR 10-6 DET conference record
DET-NO-SEA 10-6 DET
  1. NO eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
DET-CAR-LAR 10-6 DET conference record
DET-CAR-SEA 10-6 DET
  1. CAR eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
DET-ATL-LAR 10-6 ATL conference record
DET-ATL-SEA ATL head-to-head

4-team ties

If these teams tie at and these things happen tie goes to based on
PHI-MIN-NO-LAR 12-4 PHI conference record
PHI-MIN-CAR-LAR 12-4 PHI conference record
DAL-DET-NO-LAR 10-6 DET
  1. NO & LAR eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
DAL-DET-CAR-LAR 10-6 DET
  1. CAR & LAR eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
DAL-DET-ATL-LAR 10-6 ATL conference record
DAL-DET-ATL-SEA ATL head-to-head

 

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2 thoughts on “NFC tiebreakers entering Week 16 (plus MIN-GB)

  1. Dare I say Green Bay is out tonight if Atlanta moves to 9-7?

    Green Bay can’t win any tiebreaker involving Atlanta (Atlanta has defeated all teams that are currently 8-6 or 7-7 in the NFC.)

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