Quirky Research
β–Έ Uncategorized β–Έ NFC tiebreaker scenarios entering Week 15

NFC tiebreaker scenarios entering Week 15

The following charts seek to answer the following question: If these two (or more) teams finish with the same record, who wins the tiebreaker?

Notes and assumptions:

  1. No possibility of future tie games (MIN and GB are only shown for tiebreakers against each other).
  2. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now.
  3. Tiebreakers that don’t affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
  4. Division ties are broken first.
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.

No NFC team has yet clinched a playoff seed. NO and LAR have clinched their divisions.Β  SF and ARI are mathematically eliminated.

The complete tiebreaker rules are here.

Jump to East | North | South | West | Interdivisional ties 2-way β€’ 3-way β€’ 4-way

NFC East

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
DAL-PHI DAL head-to-head
DAL-WAS DAL division record
DAL-NYG 8-8 DAL division record
PHI-WAS 8-8 PHI beats WAS PHI head-to-head
PHI-WAS 8-8 WAS beats PHI PHI common opponents
PHI-NYG PHI head-to-head
WAS-NYG WAS beats PHI WAS division record
WAS-NYG
  • NYG beats DAL
  • WAS loses to PHI
WAS conference record
WAS-NYG 7-9 NYG loses to DAL WAS division record
DAL-PHI-WAS 8-8 DAL head-to-head
DAL-PHI-NYG 8-8 DAL head-to-head
DAL-WAS-NYG 8-8 DAL division record
PHI-WAS-NYG PHI head-to-head
DAL-PHI-WAS-NYG 8-8 DAL head-to-head

NFC North

If these teams tie tie goes to based on
MIN-GB MIN head-to-head

NFC South

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
CAR-TB 8-8
  • CAR beats exactly 2 of NO, NO, ATL
  • TB beats ATL
TB common opponents
CAR-TB 7-9
  • CAR beats exactly 1 of NO, NO, ATL
  • TB beats ATL
TB division record
CAR-TB 7-9 TB loses to ATL TB common opponents
CAR-ATL 7-9 ATL head-to-head
TB-ATL 7-9 ATL head-to-head
CAR-TB-ATL 7-9 ATL head-to-head

NFC West

If these teams tie tie goes to based on
LAR-SEA LAR head-to-head

Interdivisional ties

2-way ties

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
DAL-CHI 11-5 DAL beats IND, TB, NYG ? strength of victory
DAL-CHI DAL beats IND; loses to either TB or NYG CHI common opponents
DAL-CHI DAL loses to IND DAL conference record
DAL-NO DAL head-to-head
DAL-CAR 8-8 CAR head-to-head
DAL-TB 8-8 TB head-to-head
DAL-LAR 11-5 DAL conference record
DAL-SEA 8-8 SEA head-to-head
PHI-CHI 9-7 CHI conference record
PHI-DET
  • PHI beats HOU
  • DET beats BUF
DET common opponents
PHI-DET 7-9
  • PHI beats HOU
  • DET loses to BUF
DET conference record
PHI-DET
  • PHI loses to HOU
  • DET beats BUF
PHI conference record
PHI-DET 7-9
  • PHI loses to HOU
  • DET loses to BUF
DET common opponents
PHI-CAR CAR head-to-head
PHI-TB TB head-to-head
PHI-ATL 7-9 PHI head-to-head
PHI-SEA SEA conference record
WAS-CHI 9-7 WAS common opponents
WAS-DET WAS conference record
WAS-CAR WAS head-to-head
WAS-TB WAS head-to-head
WAS-ATL 7-9 ATL head-to-head
WAS-SEA 9-7 SEA beats KC ? strength of victory
WAS-SEA
  • WAS beats JAX, TEN
  • SEA loses to KC
SEA conference record
WAS-SEA 8-8 WAS beats exactly 1 of JAX, TEN ? strength of victory
NYG-DET
  • NYG beats TEN, IND
  • DET beats BUF
NYG common opponents
NYG-DET 7-9
  • NYG beats TEN, IND
  • DET loses to BUF
DET conference record
NYG-DET 7-9
  • NYG loses to either TEN or IND
  • DET beats BUF
NYG conference record
NYG-DET 7-9
  • NYG loses to either TEN or IND
  • DET loses to BUF
NYG common opponents
NYG-CAR CAR head-to-head
NYG-TB NYG head-to-head
NYG-ATL 7-9 ATL head-to-head
NYG-SEA 8-8 SEA conference record
CHI-NO CHI conference record
CHI-CAR 9-7 CHI common opponents
CHI-LAR CHI head-to-head
CHI-SEA 9-7 CHI head-to-head
DET-CAR DET head-to-head
DET-TB 7-9 TB loses to BAL TB conference record
DET-TB 7-9
  • DET loses to BUF
  • TB beats BAL
TB common opponents
DET-TB DET beats BUF TB conference record
DET-ATL 7-9 ATL conference record
DET-SEA 8-8 SEA head-to-head
NO-LAR NO head-to-head
CAR-SEA SEA head-to-head
TB-SEA 8-8 SEA conference record

3-way ties

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
DAL-CHI-NO 11-5 DAL or CHI
  1. NO eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
DAL-CHI-LAR 11-5 DAL or CHI
  1. LAR eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
DAL-DET-CAR 8-8 DAL conference record
DAL-DET-TB 8-8 DAL conference record
DAL-DET-SEA 8-8 SEA head-to-head
DAL-NO-LAR 11-5 DAL conference record
DAL-CAR-SEA 8-8 SEA head-to-head
DAL-TB-SEA 8-8 SEA
  1. DAL eliminated on head-to-head
  2. conference record
PHI-CHI-CAR 9-7 CHI
  1. PHI eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
PHI-CHI-SEA 9-7 SEA beats KC CHI
  1. PHI eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
PHI-CHI-SEA 9-7 SEA loses to KC SEA conference record
PHI-DET-CAR
  • PHI beats HOU
  • DET beats BUF
CAR conference record
PHI-DET-CAR 7-9
  • PHI beats HOU
  • DET loses to BUF
DET
  1. PHI eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
PHI-DET-CAR
  • PHI loses to HOU
  • DET beats BUF
CAR
  1. DET eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
PHI-DET-CAR 7-9
  • PHI loses to HOU
  • DET loses to BUF
? strength of victory
PHI-DET-TB
  • PHI beats HOU
  • DET beats BUF
TB conference record
PHI-DET-TB 7-9
  • PHI beats HOU
  • DET loses to BUF
  • TB beats BAL
TB
  1. PHI eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
PHI-DET-TB
  • PHI loses to HOU
  • DET beats BUF
  • TB beats BAL
TB
  1. DET eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
PHI-DET-TB 7-9
  • PHI loses to HOU
  • DET loses to BUF
  • TB beats BAL
? strength of victory
PHI-DET-TB 7-9 TB loses to BAL TB conference record
PHI-DET-ATL 7-9 ATL conference record
PHI-DET-SEA 8-8 SEA conference record
PHI-CAR-SEA 9-7 SEA beats KC SEA
  1. PHI eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
PHI-CAR-SEA SEA loses to KC SEA conference record
PHI-TB-SEA SEA conference record
WAS-CHI-CAR 9-7 ? strength of victory
WAS-CHI-SEA 9-7 SEA beats KC SEA conference record
WAS-CHI-SEA 9-7 SEA loses to KC ? strength of victory
WAS-DET-CAR WAS
  1. CAR eliminated on head-to-head
  2. conference record
WAS-DET-TB 8-8
  • WAS beats JAX, TEN
  • TB beats BAL
WAS
  1. DET eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
WAS-DET-TB 8-8
  • WAS beats JAX, TEN
  • TB loses to BAL
TB conference record
WAS-DET-TB
  • WAS beats exactly 1 of JAX, TEN
  • TB beats BAL
WAS conference record
WAS-DET-TB 7-9
  • WAS beats exactly 1 of JAX, TEN
  • TB loses to BAL
WAS
  1. DET eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
WAS-DET-TB 7-9 WAS loses to JAX, TEN WAS conference record
WAS-DET-ATL 7-9 ATL conference record
WAS-DET-SEA 8-8 WAS beats JAX, TEN SEA conference record
WAS-DET-SEA 8-8 WAS beats exactly 1 of JAX, TEN WAS or SEA
  1. DET eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
WAS-CAR-SEA 9-7 SEA beats KC ?
  1. CAR eliminated on head-to-head
  2. strength of victory
WAS-CAR-SEA
  • WAS beats JAX, TEN
  • SEA loses to KC
SEA
  1. CAR eliminated on head-to-head
  2. conference record
WAS-CAR-SEA 8-8 WAS beats exactly 1 of JAX, TEN ?
  1. CAR eliminated on head-to-head
  2. strength of victory
WAS-TB-SEA 8-8 WAS beats JAX, TEN SEA conference record
WAS-TB-SEA 8-8 WAS beats exactly 1 of JAX, TEN WAS or SEA
  1. TB eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
NYG-DET-CAR
  • NYG beats TEN, IND
  • DET beats BUF
CAR conference record
NYG-DET-CAR 7-9
  • NYG beats TEN, IND
  • DET loses to BUF
DET
  1. NYG eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
NYG-DET-CAR 7-9
  • NYG beats exactly 1 of TEN, IND
  • DET beats BUF
CAR
  1. DET eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
NYG-DET-CAR 7-9
  • NYG beats exactly 1 of TEN, IND
  • DET loses to BUF
? strength of victory
NYG-DET-TB
  • NYG beats TEN, IND
  • DET beats BUF
  • TB beats BAL
TB conference record
NYG-DET-TB 7-9
  • NYG beats TEN, IND
  • DET loses to BUF
  • TB beats BAL
TB
  1. NYG eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
NYG-DET-TB 7-9
  • NYG beats exactly 1 of TEN, IND
  • DET beats BUF
  • TB beats BAL
NYG
  1. DET eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
NYG-DET-TB 7-9
  • NYG beats exactly 1 of TEN, IND
  • DET loses to BUF
  • TB beats BAL, DAL
NYG
  1. DET eliminated on common opponents
  2. head-to-head
NYG-DET-TB 7-9
  • NYG beats exactly 1 of TEN, IND
  • DET loses to BUF
  • TB beats BAL; loses to DAL
NYG common opponents
NYG-DET-TB 7-9 TB loses to BAL TB conference record
NYG-DET-ATL 7-9 ATL conference record
NYG-DET-SEA 8-8 DET conference record
NYG-CAR-SEA 8-8 SEA conference record
NYG-TB-SEA 8-8 SEA conference record
CHI-NO-LAR CHI conference record
CHI-CAR-SEA 9-7 SEA beats KC ? strength of victory
CHI-CAR-SEA 9-7 SEA loses to KC SEA conference record
DET-CAR-SEA 8-8 SEA head-to-head
DET-TB-SEA SEA conference record

4-way ties

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
DAL-CHI-NO-LAR 11-5 DAL or CHI
  1. NO & LAR eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
DAL-DET-CAR-SEA 8-8 SEA head-to-head
DAL-DET-TB-SEA 8-8 SEA
  1. DET & TB eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
PHI-CHI-CAR-SEA 9-7 SEA beats KC CHI, CAR, or SEA
  1. PHI eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
PHI-CHI-CAR-SEA 9-7 SEA loses to KC SEA conference record
PHI-DET-CAR-SEA 8-8 SEA conference record
PHI-DET-TB-SEA 8-8 SEA conference record
WAS-CHI-CAR-SEA 9-7 SEA beats KC ? strength of victory
WAS-CHI-CAR-SEA 9-7 SEA loses to KC SEA conference record
WAS-DET-CAR-SEA 8-8 WAS beats JAX, TEN SEA
  1. CAR eliminated on head-to-head
  2. conference record
WAS-DET-CAR-SEA 8-8 WAS beats exactly 1 of JAX, TEN WAS or SEA
  1. CAR eliminated on head-to-head
  2. DET eliminated on conference record
  3. strength of victory
WAS-DET-TB-SEA 8-8 WAS beats JAX, TEN SEA conference record
WAS-DET-TB-SEA 8-8 WAS beats exactly 1 of JAX, TEN WAS or SEA
  1. DET & TB eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
NYG-DET-CAR-SEA 8-8 SEA conference record
NYG-DET-TB-SEA SEA conference record

 

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