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NFC tiebreaker scenarios entering Week 16 (plus WAS-TEN)

The following charts seek to answer the following question: If these two (or more) teams finish with the same record, who wins the tiebreaker?

Notes and assumptions:

  1. At most 1 more tie game.
  2. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now.
  3. Tiebreakers that don’t affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
  4. Division ties are broken first.
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.

No NFC team has yet clinched a playoff seed. CHI, NO, and LAR have clinched their divisions. NYG, GB, DET, TB, ATL, ARI, and SF are mathematically eliminated.

The complete tiebreaker rules are here.

Jump to East | North | Interdivisional ties 2-way β€’ 3-way β€’ 4-way

NFC East

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
DAL-PHI DAL head-to-head
DAL-WAS 8-8 DAL division record
PHI-WAS 7-8-1 PHI ties WAS PHI head-to-head
PHI-WAS 8-8 WAS beats PHI PHI common opponents
DAL-PHI-WAS 8-8 DAL head-to-head

NFC North

If these teams tie at tie goes to based on
MIN-GB 7-8-1 MIN head-to-head

Interdivisional ties

2-way ties

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
DAL-CHI 10-6 DAL conference record
DAL-MIN DAL conference record
DAL-CAR 8-8 CAR head-to-head
DAL-SEA 8-8 SEA head-to-head
PHI-MIN MIN head-to-head
PHI-CAR 8-8 CAR head-to-head
PHI-SEA SEA conference record
WAS-MIN 8-8 / 7-7-2 WAS conference record
WAS-CAR 8-8 WAS head-to-head
WAS-SEA 8-8 ? strength of victory
CHI-NO 12-4 CHI conference record
MIN-CAR 8-8 / 7-7-2 MIN ties DET MIN common opponents
MIN-CAR 8-8 / 7-7-2 MIN loses to DET ? strength of victory
MIN-SEA SEA head-to-head
CHI-LAR CHI head-to-head
NO-LAR NO head-to-head
CAR-SEA 8-8 SEA head-to-head

3-way ties

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
DAL-MIN-CAR 8-8 / 7-7-2 DAL conference record
DAL-MIN-SEA 8-8 / 7-7-2 SEA head-to-head
DAL-CAR-SEA 8-8 SEA head-to-head
PHI-MIN-CAR 8-8 / 7-7-2 MIN ties DET MIN
  1. PHI eliminated on head-to-head
  2. common opponents
PHI-MIN-CAR 8-8 / 7-7-2 MIN loses to DET MIN or CAR
  1. PHI eliminated on head-to-head
  2. strength of victory
PHI-MIN-SEA 9-7 / 8-6-2 SEA beats KC SEA
  1. PHI eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
PHI-MIN-SEA SEA loses to KC SEA conference record
PHI-CAR-SEA 8-8 SEA conference record
WAS-MIN-CAR 8-8 / 7-7-2 WAS conference record
WAS-MIN-SEA 8-8 / 7-7-2 WAS or SEA
  1. MIN eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
WAS-CAR-SEA 8-8 WAS or SEA
  1. CAR eliminated on head-to-head
  2. strength of victory
CHI-NO-LAR 12-4 CHI conference record
MIN-CAR-SEA 8-8 / 7-7-2 SEA head-to-head

 

4-way ties

If these teams tie at tie goes to based on
DAL-MIN-CAR-SEA 8-8 / 7-7-2 SEA
  1. MIN & CAR eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
PHI-MIN-CAR-SEA 8-8 / 7-7-2 SEA head-to-head
WAS-MIN-CAR-SEA 8-8 / 7-7-2 WAS or SEA
  1. MIN & CAR eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory

 

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3 thoughts on “NFC tiebreaker scenarios entering Week 16 (plus WAS-TEN)

  1. There is no CHI-SEA tiebreaker (CHI head-to-head) shown. Also, there is no CHI-DAL-SEA tiebreaker. SEA has the tiebreaker (head-to-head) over DAL and DAL has the tiebreaker (conference record) over CHI. What is the order in that 3-way scenario? Thanks. ~ Jason

    1. The Bears can’t wind up in any tiebreaker with the Seahawks because the Bears have won the NFC North and the Seahawks have been eliminated from the NFC West.

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