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2019 AFC tiebreakers after Week 16

The following charts seek to answer the following question: If these two (or more) teams finish with the same record, who wins the tiebreaker?

Notes and assumptions:

  1. No possibility of future tie games (except where indicated).
  2. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now.
  3. Tiebreakers that don’t affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored. If BUF and KC both finish 11-5, KC wins the AFC West but BUF does not win the AFC East.
  4. Division ties are broken first. If PIT, TEN, and IND all finish 8-8, break the AFC South tie between TEN and IND first, then break the tie between the TEN-IND winner and PIT.
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.

BAL has clinched the AFC North and home-field advantage. NE has clinched the AFC East. HOU has clinched the AFC South. KC has clinched the AFC West. BUF has clinched the #5 seed. CIN, DEN, IND, JAX, LAC, MIA, and NYJ have been eliminated.

The complete tiebreaker rules are here.

Jump to East | North | South | West | Interdivisional ties 2-way • 3-way

AFC East

The Patriots have clinched the AFC East.  No meaningful ties are possible.

AFC North

The Ravens have clinched the AFC North.  No meaningful ties are possible.

AFC South

If these teams tie at tie goes to based on
TEN-IND 8-8 IND division record

AFC West

The Chiefs have clinched the AFC West.  No meaningful ties are possible.

AFC interdivisional ties

2-way

If these teams tie at tie goes to based on
NE-BAL 13-3 BAL head-to-head
NE-KC 12-4 KC head-to-head
BAL-KC 12-4 KC head-to-head
PIT-TEN TEN strength of victory
PIT-IND 8-8 PIT head-to-head
HOU-KC HOU head-to-head

3-way ties

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
PIT-TEN-OAK 8-8 TEN strength of victory
PIT-IND-OAK 8-8
  • MIA beats NE
  • KC beats LAC
  • MIN beats CHI
  • GB beats DET
PIT
  1. IND eliminated on head-to-head
  2. strength of schedule
PIT-IND-OAK 8-8
  • NE beats/ties MIA or
  • LAC beats/ties KC or
  • CHI beats/ties MIN or
  • DET beats/ties GB
OAK
  1. IND eliminated on head-to-head
  2. strength of victory

 

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