Quirky Research
Football2025 AFC tiebreakers after Week 15

2025 AFC tiebreakers after Week 15

The following charts seek to answer the following question: If these two (or more) teams finish with the same record, who wins the tiebreaker?

Notes and assumptions:

  1. No possibility of future tie games.
  2. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now. (Example: the only way JAX and IND wind up with the same record at the end of the season is if IND beats JAX Week 17.)
  3. Tiebreakers that don’t affect playoff berths or seeding are not shown.
  4. If tie for the last wild card team is at 9 wins, either IND or HOU must be included in the tiebreaker.
  5. Division ties are broken first. If HOU, IND, and KC all finish 9-8, break the AFC South tie between HOU and IND first, then break the tie between the HOU-IND winner and KC.
  6. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  7. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
  8. NYJ, MIA, CLE, CIN, TEN, LV, and KC have been eliminated.
  9. DEN has clinched a playoff berth.

The complete tiebreaker rules are here.

Jump to East | North | South | West | Interdivisional ties 2-way3-way4-way

AFC East

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
NE-BUF 13-4
  • BUF beats NYJ and
  • NE beats NYJ, MIA
NE division record
NE-BUF
  • BUF beats NYJ, PHI and
  • NE beats exactly 1 of NYJ, MIA
BUF conference record
NE-BUF 12-5
  • BUF beats NYJ; loses to PHI and
  • NE beats exactly 1 of NYJ, MIA
BUF common opponents
NE-BUF
  • BUF beats NYJ and
  • NE loses to NYJ, MIA
BUF division record
NE-BUF 12-5
  • BUF loses to NYJ and
  • NE beats exactly 1 of NYJ, MIA
NE division record
NE-BUF
  • BUF beats PHI; loses to NYJ and
  • NE loses to NYJ, MIA
BUF conference record
NE-BUF 11-6
  • BUF loses to NYJ, PHI and
  • NE loses to NYJ, MIA
BUF common opponents

AFC North

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
PIT-BAL 9-8 PIT beats BAL PIT head-to-head
PIT-BAL
  • BAL beats PIT and
  • PIT beats CLE
BAL common opponents
PIT-BAL
  • BAL beats PIT and
  • PIT loses to CLE
BAL division record

AFC South

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
JAX-IND 11-6 JAX beats TEN ? strength of victory
JAX-IND
  • IND beats HOU and
  • JAX loses to TEN
IND division record
JAX-IND 10-7
  • IND loses to HOU
? strength of victory
JAX-HOU 12-5
  • JAX beats IND, TEN
HOU conference record
JAX-HOU
  • JAX beats exactly 1 of IND, TEN and
  • HOU beats TEN
HOU division record
JAX-HOU 11-6
  • JAX beats exactly 1 of IND, TEN and
  • HOU loses to TEN
HOU conference record
JAX-HOU JAX loses to IND, TEN HOU division record
IND-HOU 11-6 IND beats HOU, JAX. SF HOU conference record
IND-HOU 10-7 IND beats HOU, JAX; loses to SF ? strength of victory
IND-HOU IND beats HOU; loses to JAX HOU division record
IND-HOU 10-7 HOU beats IND HOU head-to-head
JAX-IND-HOU 11-6 JAX beats TEN HOU conference record
JAX-IND-HOU 11-6
  • IND beats JAX, HOU, SF and
  • JAX loses to TEN
HOU
  1. JAX eliminated on division record
  2. conference record
JAX-IND-HOU 10-7 IND beats JAX, HOU; loses to SF IND or HOU
  1. JAX eliminated on division record
  2. strength of victory
JAX-IND-HOU 10-7 HOU beats IND HOU head-to-head

AFC West

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
DEN-LAC LAC head-to-head

Interdivisional ties

2-way ties

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
NE-PIT 11-6 PIT head-to-head
NE-IND 11-6 IND conference record
NE-JAX JAX conference record
NE-HOU HOU conference record
NE-DEN DEN common opponents
NE-LAC LAC conference record
BUF-PIT 10-7 BUF head-to-head
BUF-IND 11-6 BUF beats PHI IND conference record
BUF-IND
  • BUF loses to PHI and
  • IND beats SF, HOU
? strength of victory
BUF-IND 10-7
  • BUF loses to PHI and
  • IND beats SF; loses to HOU
BUF common opponents
BUF-IND 10-7 IND loses to SF IND conference record
BUF-JAX BUF beats PHI JAX conference record
BUF-JAX BUF loses to PHI; beats NYJ BUF common opponents
BUF-JAX BUF loses to PHI, NYJ ? strength of victory
BUF-HOU HOU head-to-head
BUF-DEN BUF conference record
BUF-LAC BUF beats PHI LAC conference record
BUF-LAC
  • BUF loses to PHI and
  • LAC beats DAL
LAC common opponents
BUF-LAC LAC loses to DAL LAC conference record
MIA-HOU 9-8 HOU conference record
BAL-IND 10-7 IND beats SF BAL conference record
BAL-IND 10-7 IND loses to SF ? strength of victory
BAL-JAX 10-7 JAX common opponents
BAL-HOU HOU head-to-head
PIT-IND PIT head-to-head
PIT-JAX PIT conference record
PIT-HOU
  • PIT beats DET and
  • HOU beats at least 1 of LAC, IND
HOU common opponents
PIT-HOU
  • PIT beats DET, BAL and
  • HOU loses to LAC, IND
? strength of victory
PIT-HOU PIT beats DET; loses to BAL HOU common opponents
PIT-HOU PIT loses to DET PIT conference record
PIT-LAC 10-7 LAC head-to-head
IND-LAC IND head-to-head
JAX-DEN JAX head-to-head
JAX-LAC JAX head-to-head
HOU-DEN 12-5 DEN head-to-head
HOU-LAC HOU beats LAC HOU head-to-head
HOU-LAC 11-6 LAC beats HOU LAC head-to-head
HOU-KC 9-8 HOU head-to-head

3-way ties

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
NE-PIT-JAX 11-6 PIT conference record
NE-PIT-IND 11-6 PIT head-to-head
NE-PIT-HOU 11-6 HOU common opponents
NE-JAX-DEN JAX conference record
NE-JAX-LAC LAC beats DAL JAX
  1. NE eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
NE-JAX-LAC LAC loses to DAL LAC conference record
NE-IND-LAC 11-6
  • IND beats SF and
  • LAC beats DAL
IND
  1. NE eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
NE-IND-LAC 11-6
  • IND beats SF and
  • LAC loses to DAL
LAC conference record
NE-HOU-DEN 12-5 HOU conference record
BUF-PIT-JAX PIT conference record
BUF-PIT-IND IND beats SF PIT conference record
BUF-PIT-IND 10-7 IND loses to SF PIT
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
BUF-PIT-HOU HOU beats at least 1 of LAC, IND HOU
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
BUF-PIT-HOU
  • PIT beats BAL and
  • HOU loses to LAC, IND
PIT or HOU
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
BUF-PIT-HOU 10-7
  • PIT loses to BAL
HOU
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
BUF-PIT-LAC 10-7 LAC
  1. PIT eliminated on head-to-head
  2. conference record
BUF-JAX-DEN BUF beats PHI JAX conference record
BUF-JAX-DEN 12-5 BUF loses to PHI BUF
  1. DEN eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
BUF-JAX-LAC
  • BUF beats PHI and
  • LAC beats DAL
JAX
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
BUF-JAX-LAC
  • BUF loses to PHI and
  • LAC beats DAL
? strength of victory
BUF-JAX-LAC LAC loses to DAL LAC conference record
BUF-IND-LAC 11-6
  • BUF beats PHI and
  • IND beats SF and
  • LAC beats DAL
IND
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
BUF-IND-LAC 11-6
  • BUF loses to PHI and
  • IND beats SF and
  • LAC beats DAL
LAC
  1. IND eliminated on common opponents
  2. common opponents
BUF-IND-LAC
  • IND beats SF and
  • LAC loses to DAL
LAC conference record
BUF-IND-LAC IND loses to SF IND
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
BUF-HOU-DEN 12-5 HOU conference record
BUF-HOU-LAC HOU beats LAC HOU head-to-head
BUF-HOU-LAC 11-6 LAC beats HOU LAC
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record; head-to-head
MIA-PIT-HOU 9-8 PIT beats DET HOU
  1. MIA eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
MIA-PIT-HOU 9-8 PIT loses to DET PIT conference record
MIA-BAL-HOU 9-8 BAL beats GB HOU conference record
MIA-BAL-HOU 9-8 BAL loses to GB HOU
  1. MIA eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
MIA-HOU-KC 9-8 HOU conference record
PIT-JAX-LAC 10-7 LAC
  1. JAX eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
PIT-IND-LAC 10-7 IND beats SF LAC
  1. IND eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
PIT-IND-LAC 10-7 IND loses to SF ? strength of victory
PIT-HOU-LAC 10-7 ? strength of victory
PIT-HOU-KC 9-8 PIT beats DET HOU
  1. KC eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
PIT-HOU-KC 9-8 PIT loses to DET PIT conference record
BAL-HOU-KC 9-8 HOU head-to-head

4-way ties

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
BUF-PIT-JAX-LAC 10-7 LAC
  1. BUF & JAX eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
BUF-PIT-IND-LAC 10-7 IND beats SF LAC
  1. BUF & IND eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
BUF-PIT-IND-LAC 10-7 IND loses to SF PIT, IND, or LAC
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
BUF-PIT-HOU-LAC 10-7 PIT, LAC, or HOU
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
MIA-PIT-HOU-KC 9-8 PIT beats DET HOU
  1. MIA & KC eliminated on conference record; common opponents
MIA-PIT-HOU-KC 9-8 PIT loses to DET PIT conference record
MIA-BAL-HOU-KC 9-8 BAL beats GB HOU conference record
MIA-BAL-HOU-KC 9-8 BAL loses to GB HOU
  1. MIA & KC eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head

 

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