The following charts seek to answer the following question: If these two (or more) teams finish with the same record, who wins the tiebreaker?
Notes and assumptions:
- Limited possibility of future tie games (PIT appears in the table for the first time).
- Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now.
- Tiebreakers that don’t affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored. (Example: any tie at 9 wins that doesn’t include both IND and the LV-LAC loser.)
- Division ties are broken first. If LAC, LV, and PIT all finish 9-7-1, break the AFC West tie between LAC and LV first, then break the tie between the LAC-LV winner and PIT.
- If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
- Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
- CIN has clinched the AFC North. TEN has clinched the AFC South. KC has clinched the AFC West.
- BUF and NE have clinched playoff berths.
- The final playoff berths will go to two of PIT, BAL, IND, LAC, and LV.
- Scenario by which BAL makes the playoffs: BAL win + MIA loss/tie + IND loss + LAC loss.
- MIA, NYJ, CLE, HOU, JAX, and DEN have been eliminated.
The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
Jump to East | West | Interdivisional ties 2-way • 3-way • 4-way
AFC East
| If these teams tie | at | tie goes to | based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF-NE | BUF | division record |
AFC West
| If these teams tie | at | tie goes to | based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC-LV | 9-7-1 | LAC | head-to-head |
Interdivisional ties
2-way ties
| If these teams tie | at | tie goes to | based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF-CIN | CIN | conference record | |
| BUF-TEN | 11-6 | TEN | head-to-head |
| BUF-IND | 10-7 | IND | head-to-head |
| BUF-LAC | 10-7 | LAC | conference record |
| BUF-LV | 10-7 | LV | conference record |
| NE-CIN | 11-6 | NE | common opponents |
| NE-TEN | 11-6 | NE | head-to-head |
| NE-IND | 10-7 | IND | head-to-head |
| NE-LAC | 10-7 | NE | head-to-head |
| NE-LV | 10-7 | LV | common opponents |
| CIN-TEN | 11-6 | CIN | conference record |
| PIT-IND | 9-7-1 | IND | conference record |
| PIT-LAC | 9-7-1 | LAC | head-to-head |
| PIT-LV | 9-7-1 | LV | head-to-head |
| TEN-KC | 12-5 | TEN | head-to-head |
| IND-LAC | 9-8 | IND | conference record |
| IND-LV | LV | head-to-head |
3-way ties
| If these teams tie | at | tie goes to | based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF-CIN-TEN | 11-6 | CIN | conference record |
| BUF-IND-LAC | 10-7 | IND | conference record |
| BUF-IND-LV | 10-7 | LV |
|
| NE-CIN-TEN | 11-6 | NE |
|
| NE-IND-LAC | 10-7 | IND |
|
| NE-IND-LV | 10-7 | LV | strength of victory |
| MIA-IND-LAC | 9-8 | IND | conference record |
| MIA-IND-LV | 9-8 | LV | head-to-head |
| PIT-IND-LAC | IND | conference record | |
| PIT-IND-LV | LV | head-to-head | |
| BAL-IND-LAC | 9-8 | BAL | head-to-head |
| BAL-IND-LV | 9-8 | LV | head-to-head |
4-way ties
| If these teams tie | at | tie goes to | based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA-BAL-IND-LAC | 9-8 | IND | conference record |
| MIA-BAL-IND-LV | 9-8 | LV | head-to-head |
| MIA-PIT-IND-LAC | 9-8 / 8-7-2 | LAC |
|
| MIA-PIT-IND-LV | 9-8 / 8-7-2 | LV | head-to-head |
Afraid I have spotted an issue in the 4-way tiebreaker section. It seems quite impossible for LV to win a tiebreaker involving MIA-PIT-IND-LAC :).
My read would be IND wins this tiebreak outright on conference record (7-5 with loss to JAX, PIT 6-5-1 with tie to BAL, LAC 6-6 with loss to LV, MIA 5-7 with win over NE)
On further thought, I think your notes are correct on the scenario for the row below on MIA-PIT-IND-LV :)!