Notes and assumptions:
- No possibility of ties.
- Tiebreakers that don’t affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
- Divisional ties are broken first. To break a tie between NYJ, MIA, and BAL, first break the tie between NYJ and MIA.
- The AFC #6 seed will have at least a 10-6 record.
- Locked berths: TEN #1, PIT #2, IND #5
- Key games next week: NE at BUF, MIA at NYJ, JAX at BAL, DEN at SD.
- The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
AFC Tiebreakers after Week 16:
| Teams tied |
Record |
Who wins? |
Why? |
|
|
|
|
|
| Divisional: |
| NYJ-NE |
10-6 |
NYJ |
Division record |
| NYJ-MIA |
10-6 |
NYJ |
Head-to-head sweep |
| NE-MIA |
any |
MIA |
Conference record (8-4/7-5 vs. 7-5/6-6) |
| NYJ-NE-MIA |
10-6 |
NYJ |
Round robin (3-1 vs. 2-2 vs. 1-3) |
| PIT-BAL |
11-5 |
PIT |
Head-to-head sweep |
| DEN-SD |
8-8 |
SD |
Division record (5-1 vs. 3-3) |
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference: |
| NYJ-BAL |
10-6 |
NYJ |
Conference record (8-4 vs. 7-5) |
| NE-PIT |
11-5 |
PIT |
Head-to-head |
| NE-BAL |
any |
BAL |
Conference record |
| NE-IND |
11-5 |
IND |
Head-to-head |
| MIA-PIT |
11-5 |
PIT |
Conference record (9-3 vs. 8-4) |
| MIA-BAL |
10-6 |
BAL |
Head-to-head |
| BAL-IND |
11-5 |
IND |
Head-to-head |
| NE-BAL-IND |
11-5 |
IND |
Head-to-head sweep |
