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Simple AFC Tiebreaker Chart

Notes and assumptions:

  1. No possibility of ties.
  2. Tiebreakers that don’t affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
  3. Divisional ties are broken first. To break a tie between NYJ, MIA, and BAL, first break the tie between NYJ and MIA.
  4. The AFC #6 seed will have at least a 10-6 record.
  5. Locked berths: TEN #1, PIT #2, IND #5
  6. Key games next week: NE at BUF, MIA at NYJ, JAX at BAL, DEN at SD.
  7. The complete tiebreaker rules are here.

AFC Tiebreakers after Week 16:

Teams tied Record Who wins? Why?
NYJ-NE 10-6 NYJ Division record
NYJ-MIA 10-6 NYJ Head-to-head sweep
NE-MIA any MIA Conference record (8-4/7-5 vs. 7-5/6-6)
NYJ-NE-MIA 10-6 NYJ Round robin (3-1 vs. 2-2 vs. 1-3)
PIT-BAL 11-5 PIT Head-to-head sweep
DEN-SD 8-8 SD Division record (5-1 vs. 3-3)
NYJ-BAL 10-6 NYJ Conference record (8-4 vs. 7-5)
NE-PIT 11-5 PIT Head-to-head
NE-BAL any BAL Conference record
NE-IND 11-5 IND Head-to-head
MIA-PIT 11-5 PIT Conference record (9-3 vs. 8-4)
MIA-BAL 10-6 BAL Head-to-head
BAL-IND 11-5 IND Head-to-head
NE-BAL-IND 11-5 IND Head-to-head sweep

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