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2023 AFC tiebreakers after Week 17 (plus PIT-BAL, HOU-IND)

The following charts seek to answer the following question: If these two (or more) teams finish with the same record, who wins the tiebreaker?

Notes and assumptions:

  1. No possibility of future tie games.
  2. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now. (Example: the only way MIA and BUF wind up with the same record at the end of the season is if BUF beats MIA Week 18.)
  3. Ties that don’t affect playoff berths or seeding are not shown. (Examples: any tie at fewer than 10 wins, or any tie involving 11-6 non-division winner CLE and 11-6 West winner KC.)
  4. Division ties are broken first.
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
  7. BAL has clinched the AFC North and the #1 seed. KC has clinched the AFC West.
  8. MIA, CLE, and HOU have clinched playoff spots.
  9. NE, TEN, LAC, NYJ, LV, CIN, DEN, and IND have been eliminated.

The complete tiebreaker rules are here.

Jump to East |South | Interdivisional ties 2-way • 3-way

AFC East

If these teams tie at tie goes to based on
MIA-BUF 11-6 BUF head-to-head

AFC South

If these teams tie at tie goes to based on
JAX-HOU 10-6 JAX division record

Interdivisional ties

2-way ties

If these teams tie at tie goes to based on
MIA-CLE 11-6 CLE conference record
BUF-PIT 10-7 PIT conference record
BUF-HOU 10-7 HOU conference record
BUF-KC 11-6 BUF head-to-head
PIT-HOU 10-7 HOU head-to-head
JAX-KC 10-7 KC head-to-head
HOU-KC 10-7 KC conference record

3-way ties

If these teams tie at tie goes to based on
BUF-PIT-HOU 10-7 HOU
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head

 

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